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Robbo
Last seen: 2 days 12 hours ago
Joined: 21/03/2004 - 00:00
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VFL Finals Scenario

Here are the Scenarios heading into the final 2 rounds of Season.

SENIORS

WILLIAMSTOWN 1st 12-4
Remaining Games: vs Casey(A), vs Port(A)
2 good games for the Seagulls to finish off the season to see where they are at leading into the finals. If they win both they will finish top but should they lose both can finish as low as 3rd.
My Prediction: 1st

NORTH BALLARAT 2nd 12-4
Remaining Games: vs Bendigo(A), vs Sandringham(H )
2 winnable games for the Roosters if they win both they can finish top should Williamstown lose one of their reamining games. Can finish as low as 3rd
My Prediction: 2nd

PORT MELBOURNE 3rd 11-5
Remaining Games: vs Sandringham(H ), vs Williamstown(H )
They have a great draw coming into the finals with 2 games at home. Both games should be beauty's. You would except the Borough to win one of these games. If they win both can finish 2nd should they lose both they can drop to as low as 6th.
My Prediction: 3rd

BOX HILL HAWKS 4th 11-6
Remaining Games: BYE, vs Casey(H )
Box Hill have to sit back and watch this week as they have the Bye and they may well be put in a situation that they must beat Casey in final round to get double chance. Can still finish as low as 7th.
My Prediction: 5th

NORTHERN BULLANTS 5th 10-6
Remaining Games: vs Coburg(H ), vs Frankston(A)
They are in a fight for a double spot with the Hawks if they win both matches they will get that 4th spot. Neither game will be easy against a desperate Coburg and a Dolphins teams looking to finish the season on a good note. The Bullants have a poor record at Frankston. They can still finish as low as 8th.
My Prediction: 4th

CASEY SCORPIONS 6th 9-7
Remaining Games: vs Williamstown(H ), vs Box Hill(A)
If the Scorpions can win both they can still make the top 4 but if they lose both can finish as low as 8th. Another team with a good draw against propective finals teams.
My Prediction: 7th

GEELONG 7th 9-7
Remaining Games: vs Werribee(A), vs Collingwood(H )
A win for Geelong on Saturday Night at Werribee will guarantee a finals spot. They can finish as high as 5th but can miss the finals if Sany win both their remaining games.
My Prediction: 6th

COLLINGWOOD 8th 8-8
Remaining Games: vs Frankston(H ), vs Geelong(A)
A huge game for the Pies at Princes Park on Saturday against the Dolphins a win will almost guarantee a finals spot. A loss it could mean a must win game at Geelong the following week not an easy task.
My Prediction: 8th

SANDRINGHAM 9th 7-9
Remaining Games: vs Port(A), vs Nth Ball(A)
They can make the finals if they win one of these 2 games if the Pies lose both of their's, both of these will be tough. Playing two teams in the top 4 away from home won't be easy but if you want to do well in the finals you need to beat these teams.
My Prediction: 9th

COBURG TIGERS 10th 7-10
Remaining Games: vs Nth Bull(A), BYE
For the Tigers to make the finals they must defeat the Bullants and hope Collingwood and Sandringham lose both of their matches. Highly Unlikely.
My Prediction: 10th

Werribee,Frankston,Bendigo Bombers can not make the finals.

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BrekkyDJ
Last seen: 1 month 1 week ago
Joined: 03/05/2007 - 00:00
Posts: 1096

My Predicted ladder finish and finals format

1st North Ballarat - 56 points
2nd Williamstown - 52 points
3rd Port Melbourne - 52 points
4th Northern Bullants - 48 points
5th Box Hill - 48 points
6th Geelong - 44 points
7th Casey Scorpions - 36 points
8th Collingwood - 36 points
(Missing out on the finals are...
9th Sandringham - 28 points
10th Coburg - 28 points
11th Werribee - 28 points
12th Frankston - 12 points
13th Bendigo - 0 points

*Willy and Port just separated on %. I think Port will roll Willy in the last round since the game is at TEAC Oval

*I think the Bullants will jump Box Hill on % due to the 'Easier Draw'

Likely 1st week of finals
QF 1 - 1st v 4th
North Ballarat v Northern Bullants at Eureka Stadium

QF 2 - 2nd v 3rd
Williamstown v Port Melbourne at TEAC Oval (1st of the 2 TV Games)

QF 3 - 5th v 8th
Box Hill Hawks v Collingwood at Box Hill City Oval

QF 4 - 6th v 7th
Geelong v Casey Scorpions at TEAC Oval (2nd of the 2 TV Games)

*Despite Willy finishing above Port, the VFL will most likely want this as a TV game (two weeks in a row!) thus it will be played at Teac Oval

*Geelong's ground might be booked by the GFL for finals, thus Geelong would end up playing Casey as a TV game at TEAC Oval.

Pete.

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vfa
Last seen: 1 day 7 hours ago
Joined: 13/03/2004 - 00:00
Posts: 4914

The summary is spot on Robbo.
Maybe your dolphins can win over the filth this week. No reason why not.

Mustang
Last seen: 8 months 2 weeks ago
Joined: 13/08/2008 - 00:00
Posts: 380

[quote=Robbo]SENIORS

NORTHERN BULLANTS 5th 10-6
Remaining Games: vs Coburg(H ), vs Frankston(A)
They are in a fight for a double spot with the Hawks if they win both matches they will get that 4th spot.[/quote]

Not correct Robbo!

If Bullants win their last 2 games and Box Hill defeats Casey in Round 20, both will be 12 wins and 6 losses, so percentage will decde 4th and 5th.

Box Hill presently holds an advantage of 2.1% which works out at around 6 goals.

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BrekkyDJ
Last seen: 1 month 1 week ago
Joined: 03/05/2007 - 00:00
Posts: 1096

[quote=Mustang][quote=Robbo]SENIORS

NORTHERN BULLANTS 5th 10-6
Remaining Games: vs Coburg(H ), vs Frankston(A)
They are in a fight for a double spot with the Hawks if they win both matches they will get that 4th spot.[/quote]

Not correct Robbo!

If Bullants win their last 2 games and Box Hill defeats Casey in Round 20, both will be 12 wins and 6 losses, so percentage will decde 4th and 5th.

Box Hill presently holds an advantage of 2.1% which works out at around 6 goals.[/quote]

But as I pointed out Mustang in my predictions (and no doubt Robbo thought the same), The Bullants are playing two easier opponents - I EXPECT them to easily make up that 2.1% difference and pass it.

Mustang
Last seen: 8 months 2 weeks ago
Joined: 13/08/2008 - 00:00
Posts: 380

[quote=BrekkyDJ]But as I pointed out Mustang in my predictions (and no doubt Robbo thought the same), The Bullants are playing two easier opponents - I EXPECT them to easily make up that 2.1% difference and pass it.[/quote]

Let's say Box Hill can beat Casey in the last game by 2 goals.

Then the Bullants would need to win their last 2 games by a combined total of 8 goals or more to move ahead.

I don't think anyone could say that they will "easily" do that! Sure they will start favourite in both games, but they wouldn't want to take either opponent lightly, particularly the Dolphins on their own ground who are finally starting to show what they are capable of.

digs
Last seen: 1 day 16 hours ago
Joined: 31/05/2007 - 00:00
Posts: 3632

[quote=Dale61][quote=BrekkyDJ]

Likely 1st week of finals
QF 1 - 1st v 4th
North Ballarat v Northern Bullants at Eureka Stadium

QF 2 - 2nd v 3rd
Williamstown v Port Melbourne at TEAC Oval (1st of the 2 TV Games)

QF 3 - 5th v 8th
Box Hill Hawks v Collingwood at Box Hill City Oval

QF 4 - 6th v 7th
Geelong v Casey Scorpions at TEAC Oval (2nd of the 2 TV Games)

*Despite Willy finishing above Port, the VFL will most likely want this as a TV game (two weeks in a row!) thus it will be played at Teac Oval

*Geelong's ground might be booked by the GFL for finals, thus Geelong would end up playing Casey as a TV game at TEAC Oval.

Pete.[/quote]

Both knock-out finals should be TV games.

Therefore, and using your scenario, 5 v 8 (Sat?) and 6 v 7 (Sun?) will be played at TEAC Oval, with the teams finishing 1 & 2 deservedly getting a home game first up. However, if Port does happen to sneak up in to 2nd, then they would get a home game (and a TV one at that), with 6 v 7 (if Geelong stay 6th) the other TV game.[/quote]

It probable does'nt matter where Port finishes as they are always playing home finals.
I'm sure what the Roosters would prefer is for Willy to continue winning so the Port boys will have to make the trip to Ballarat again.

We might be from the bush. but we ain't green