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aj9172
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Breeze? I can't imagine a cyclone big enough to help Sandy get over Willy, but there ya go.....upset of the season to date?

I reckon yesterday has given us some real info about where teams are headed this year. Port and Aspley are pretty decent sides but not good enough to make finals. I know Port have players out, but you can't afford to drop too many games in a 22 team comp with 16 rounds. GWS are really pretty horrid. Richmond are yoyos. I think Frankston and Coburg are top half of the ladder, just, but will both battle to make it. Oh, and Southport are the real deal! They are clearly not as fluent out of Queensland, but they still have had decent away results. Up there they appear dynamite, especially at home. Aspley are reasonable and to beat them the way Southport did requires some real talent. 

I think there's five teams can win the flag, and I honestly can't separate them in order - Willy, Casey, Geelong, Footscray and Southport. That leaves the remaining 3 spots to be fought for by Werribee, Box Hill, Sydney, Collingwood, Frankston, Coburg, Carlton, Richmond and Brisbane. I think we'll go into the last round of the season with all three of those spots still up for grabs given the shortened season. That leaves Port, Aspley, Essendon and Sandy filling spots 15-18, with Gold Coast, GWS, Preston and North in the cellar.

Would love to hear your thoughts fellas.

vfa
vfa's picture

Pretty good summary aj9172. Casey, geelong and Footscray need not too many injuries but with full list best of afl teams. Williamstown had a bad day yesterday but they were missing several players. Seagulls still team to beat. Southport are a very good team. No easy game whoever plays the sharks especially away. Werribee and coburg will be both playing finals and can go a long way. Frankston can play finals. Need to beat Essendon to be 4-1 which will put the dolphins in an ok position after 5 rounds. Richmond has not got the depth this year and won't win flag and struggle to make eight.  Port Melbourne don't look as strong but can improve with a full list. Apsley are ok, swans and Brisbane seem better than gold coast and gws. North Melbourne are the worst team by a long way. With the addition of new teams comp has been rejuvenated and coverage by kayo, Foxtel, ch7, steaming and radio is good. Only read downside no footy record and no teams published in daily papers which is very poor.

billythekid

Its very hard to predict as its  such a comprimised fixture but I think the AFL reserves sides will take some beating and the aligned teams rely on how many AFL players are avaliabe each week and if they play to their ability.

Of the interstate clubs I think most of them will struggle and I dont think many will feature in the finals.

MegaA
MegaA's picture

Your right AJ Port is not good enough on current  form to deserve a finals spot. When your missing set shots from 15, 20 metres out, when your dropping your head in the last quarter and not playing with any cohesion then you don't deserve to be there in September. I knew Coburg was a danger game that we could lose and I wouldn't be surprised if you beat us as well later on in the year. Port can't keep blaming injuries, prominent players to come back are Arnott, Woofindin who will be back next week most likely, young TOS and Janson, its not like half the team are out. We need to win 10 of the next 12, I think that the task is too big a challenge but I've been wrong in the past and hope to be wrong regarding this prediction. 

17 PREMIERSHIPS, 21 X Runners up

THE VFLS MOST SUCCESSFUL CLUB - THE MIGHTY PORT MELBOURNE BOROUGH!

I'M PORT MELBURNE BORN, I'M PORT MELBOURNE BRED, I'LL BE PORT UNTIL I'M DEAD!!!

aj9172
aj9172's picture

Well MegaA, based on today the Dolphins won't be near it either. It's not lack of ability, but the confidence built in those first three weeks appears to be gone. Essendon were probably our weakest opponent so far (North aside) and rather than attack them our boys tried to "not lose" the game. The last quarter was awful, after a miraculous early goal to take the lead we became completely reactive and unwilling to take any chances to create pressure. Only a couple of junk time goals wallpaper over what was a last quarter blowout. 
Massive night for the club next Friday with our 1000th game....am sure the club will make a big night of it. Hope our boys can get back to the inspired footy of two weeks back or Footscray will feast on us.

vfa
vfa's picture

Footy can fluctuate and I am sure the dolphins can put up a great effort and lift against the dogs. I will get there on Friday night. Looking forward to finally watch a night game at kars street. Will go via the grand hotel for a feed and ale before trekking to the hill. Will be a big night for the dolphins in game 1000 vfa-vfl. 

vfa
vfa's picture

North Melbourne have now lost their past 3 games by 107, 107 and 108 points. The only shining light after watching the replay on ch7 was Eddie Ford. Takes a strong grab and looks like a likely type. Think there will be many more triple figure defeats for north by the years end. 

Bearsman
Bearsman's picture

The Dolphins are playing vey patchy footy at pesent. When they decide to turn it on and link up and run and carry they look brilliant, but, as AJ has said they very quickly stop running,  and go back into their shell.  Losing Newman and Lambert really hurt, and O'Hanlon looked like he needed the hit out and the team is carrying a few passengers. There are two or three 'senior' players that are going terrible and need to go back to suburban footy to find some form.

It was an even contest for 3 quarters but Essendon upped the ante in the last quarter and Frankston dropped off, but at the end of the day the difference between the two teams was Ambrose. 6 easy goals which could have been 8,  against an undersized and inexpeienced Dolphin defence. They are screaming out for a couple of big experienced key defenders and will have problems with quality forwards until they can find them.

I expect Frankston to go well against Footscray this week, and returning to Kars St is a big plus. Not sure if they are good enough to win but the Dogs wont want to take them lightly.

MegaA
MegaA's picture

Hard to tell what Frankston will do AJ, but i think a win this week is extremely important as i fear that if thet lose then the Frankston of old will be back, one that drops their heads when trailing and lacks belief.

As per seasons gone by, the league is very hard to predict, a example of that is in VFAs tipping comp only one round saw a tipsters correctly tip every game.

17 PREMIERSHIPS, 21 X Runners up

THE VFLS MOST SUCCESSFUL CLUB - THE MIGHTY PORT MELBOURNE BOROUGH!

I'M PORT MELBURNE BORN, I'M PORT MELBOURNE BRED, I'LL BE PORT UNTIL I'M DEAD!!!

aj9172
aj9172's picture

Hey vfa, if you're around the hill area you will find my 21yo son and I sitting somewhere around the wing, up the back. You won't struggle to pick the resemblance people tell me. Come say hello.

Bearsman, you have hit the nail on the head mate. As soon as I heard Lambert and Newman were out I had a sinking feeling. Definitely two who lead by example when it comes to taking the game on. Our backline is once again way too small.....and a bit too reactive I think. If you know you've got a height disadvantage, then either be sharp to move or play in front. Hammellman from Aspley exposed us, and now Ambrose, who honestly just ran into gaping holes in our defence.

MegaA, yeah, I fear what might happen if we lose this one on Friday. Hopefully Newman and Lambert are back and will make a huge difference to our playing style. With the draft coming up, I fear we could lose as many as five. Lambert, Fordham, Freeman, Newman and even Rendell possibly. I'd include Jack Mentha in that but doubt a club would give a bloke of his height a crack. If we lose our entire centre brigade it isn't gonna look pretty. Regardless of who is on the park, Frankston have started this season playing exciting footy, and shown a real willingness to take calculated risks and go after the game. I think all of our supporters just want to see that, a team that will have a crack, regardless of results.

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