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Entering the home straight of the H&A games so it's worth trying to predict what might happen in the next month. The top five teams are certain finalists while Coburg, Frankston, Northern Bullants and Sandringham are fighting it out for 6th, 7th and 8th.
Home games have been a massive advantage this year. I haven't had time to go back through previous years, but to Round 16 the combined record of the top nine teams at home is 55 wins and 13 losses whilst playing away these teams have recorded 29 wins and 41 losses. A home final for Casey against Nth Ballarat or Williamstown would be a major advantage for what is likely to be the fourth placed side.
Team Home Away
Nth Ballarat 9W 0L 4W 3L
Williamstown 7W 1L 6W 2L
Port Melbourne 7W 0L 5W 4L
Casey 8W 0L 2W 6L
Werribee 7W 2L 2W 5L
Coburg 4W 3L 4W 5L
Frankston 6W 2L 2W 6L
Northern Bullants 2W 2L 2W 4L
Sandringham 5W 3L 2W 6L
Nth Ballarat play: Casey [A], Bullants [H], Tasmainia [A] and Sandringham [A]
- Would be expected to win at least two games.
Williamstown play: Port Melbourne [A], Bendigo [H], Box Hill [A] and Werribee [H]
- If they beat Port Melbourne could reasonably expect to finish on top with 17 wins.
Port Melbourne: Williamstown [H], Geelong [A], Collingwood [H] and Bullants [H]
- Can be expected to win three games.
Casey: Nth Ballarat [H], Frankston [A], Coburg [H] and Collingwood [A]
- Chance against Nth Ballarat, might struggle at Frankston and should beat Coburg and Collingwood.
Werribee: Collingwood [A], Box Hill [H], Bendigo [A] and Williamstown [A]
- Big chance to win three out of four. Little chance of getting into top four.
Coburg: Bullants [H], Sandringham [H], Casey [A], Bendigo [A]
- Must win home games. Likely to struggle at Casey, advantaged by playing Bendigo at Windy Hill.
Frankston: Tasmiania [A], Casey [H], Sandringham [H] and Geelong [A]
- Strong chance to win all four. Likely to finish 6th and get a home final.
Bullants: Coburg [A], Nth Ballarat [A], Geelong [H] and Port Melbourne [A]
- Need to beat Coburg and Geelong to have any chance of finishing 8th.
Sandringham: Geelong [H], Coburg [A], Frankston [A] and Nth Ballarat [H]
- Should beat Geelong. Chance in other matches.
First week of finals could something like
Williamstown V Casey
Nth Ballarat v Port Melbourne
Werribbe V Northern Bullants
Frankston V Coburg
