It's all to play for with three rounds to go.....every game is worth gold to win, and potential disaster for some with a loss (see Sandy yesterday). Here's what I reckon might happen from here.....
Werribee 1st – 56 points, 145.8%
Southport (home) Win, Bye, Box Hill (away) Win
Likely finish – 64 points, 146% - 1st
The Bees have two tough games to finish, but would still be favoured to win both. Even if they lost both are still finishing top of the table.
Geelong 2nd – 46 points, 128.2%
Bye, Carlton (home) Win, Sandringham (away) Win
Likely finish – 54 points, 129% - 4th
The bye has come at the wrong time for the Cats. With a tough finish at Sandy, they need a big win against Carlton to shore up a spot in the top four.
Footscray 3rd – 46 points, 120.2%
Casey Demons (home) Win, Frankston (away) Win, Sydney (away) Win
Likely finish – 58 points, 122% - 2nd
The Dogs have been a bit inconsistent of late, but should win at least two of their three. Three will be required to finish 2nd. The Swans game in the final round could be telling, but it’s likely Sydney are out of the finals equation by then.
Brisbane 4th – 44 points, 117.8%
Carlton (away) Win, GWS Giants (home) Win, Collingwood (away) Win
Likely finish – 56 points, 120% - 3rd
Only have to win one to finish top 4, and while they have looked a bit vulnerable of late, they should win at least two.
Box Hill 5th – 44 points, 117.5%
GWS Giants (away) Loss, Bye, Werribee (home) Loss
Likely finish – 44 points, 115% - 8th
The Hawks have it rough with a bye in the middle of two very tough games. They’d do well to win at GWS, and their current form doesn’t give them much hope against Werribee even at home.
Southport 6th – 40 points, 121%
Werribee (away) Loss, Bye, North Melbourne (home) Win
Likely finish – 48 points, 120% - 5th
Hard to see the Sharks winning at Chirnside Park, but should be too good for North at home. Another team not helped by the bye in the middle.
Williamstown 7th – 40 points, 101.9%
North Melbourne (home) Win, Bye, GWS Giants (home) Win
Likely finish – 48 points, 103% - 7th
The Gulls will likely find themselves in the wildcard games despite likely wins in the last two games. Both games are likely wins, but not gimmes – two losses would be a debacle, likely putting them in an away game for the wildcard, or even missing out altogether.
Gold Coast 8th – 36 points, 113.9%
Coburg (home) Win, Essendon (away) Win, Casey Demons (away) Win
Likely finish – 48 points, 115% - 6th
Gold Coast have found their mojo in the second half of the season and will likely continue that with three lower ranked sides. Should get a home wildcard game.
Richmond 9th – 36 points, 109.1%
Bye, Sandringham (home) Win, Carlton (away) Win
Likely finish – 44 points, 111% - 9th
The Tigers would likely win both their remaining games but will struggle to move up the table at all. A loss to Sandringham would put their finals spot in some jeopardy.
Frankston 10th – 36 points, 98.1%
Port Melbourne (home) Win, Footscray (home) Loss, Bye
Likely finish – 40 points, 97% - 10th
A win this week against Port likely sees the Dolphins into the wildcard game. An upset against Footscray as well could see them with a home game if Willy or the Suns slip up. Lose to Port though, and suddenly the Dogs is an elimination final.
GWS Giants 11th – 32 points, 94.8%
Box Hill (home) Win, Brisbane (away) Loss, Williamstown (away) Loss
Likely finish – 36 points, 92% - 11th
The Giants have the toughest run home of the contenders but are in decent form. Three wins could see them comfortably in, with even a home wildcard game a possibility…..but two losses would see them miss altogether.
Sandringham 12th – 30 points, 103.2%
Bye, Richmond (away) Loss, Geelong (home) Loss
Likely finish – 30 points, 100% - 13th
With a bye this week, they are going to need a lot to go their way. Would need two wins against higher ranked teams and then rely on Frankston and GWS slipping up.
Sydney 13th – 30 points, 103.1%
Bye, Collingwood (home) Win, Footscray (home) Loss
Likely finish – 34 points, 103% - 12th
In the same boat as Sandy, though should beat the Pies comfortably. Even if they can knock over the Dogs they will need teams above them to cave in.
